Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are hovering close to UNCH this morning. They ended the Thursday session with most contracts steady to fractionally higher. Analysts are expecting 500,000-900,000 MT of corn was sold for export in the week of 11/8 ahead of today’s delayed Export Sales report. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production for the week of 11/9 at 1.067 million barrels per day, down just 1,000 bpd from last week. Green Plains permanently closed a 60 mgal Virginia plant. Stockpiles of ethanol stood at 23.514 million barrels, up 364,000 barrels from a week ago, with the Gulf and East Coast increasing stocks.

Soybean futures are currently 1 to 2 cents per bushel lower after closing 4 to 5 1/2 cents higher on Thursday. Front month soy meal was down 30 cents/ton, with soy oil up 12 points. Trade estimates are running 400,000-700,000 MT for 18/19 soybean export sales for the week that ended 11/8. Soy meal sales are expected at 100,000-400,000 MT, with soy oil at 5,000-30,000 MT. The monthly NOPA report indicated that its members crushed 172.346 mbu of soybeans during October, exceeding expectations. That all-time record use was 4.93% larger than last year and up 7.19% from September. Soy oil stocks were at 1.502 billion pounds, down 1.88% from last month despite the larger crush.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents lower in the Chicago and KC contracts this morning. Minneapolis spring wheat is fractionally higher. They settled the Thursday session with most KC and MPLS contracts 1 to 2 cents lower. CBT SRW was the strongest yesterday, steady to 2 3/4 cents higher in the front months. Ahead of today’s delayed Export Sales report, traders are estimating 400,000-650,000 MT of wheat was sold in the week ending on November 8. Japan purchased 120,226 MT of wheat from Australia, Canada and the US in their weekly tender, with 50,327 MT US origin. Saudi Arabia is seeking 475,000 MT of wheat for Jan-Mar 2019.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures saw 15 to 55 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures were 75 cents to $1 higher, as Nov expired down 35 cents at $148.625. The CME feeder cattle index was down 45 cents on November 14 at $148.93. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 39 cents at $213.55, with the Select cutout value 40 cents higher at $197.58. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for Thursday was at 119,000 head, with the WTD total @ 467,000 head. That is 6,000 below the previous week and 12,000 head fewer than the same day last year. A few cash bids of $112-113 have been reported so far, but no trade has developed in the south. Some transactions at $178 have been reported in IA and NE but not enough to establish the trend.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted 50 cent to $1.40 gains in most contracts on Thursday, with nearby Dec up 7.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 73 cents from the previous day @ $60.47 on November 12. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 35 cents on Thursday afternoon at $68.67. The belly was up $3.95, with the picnic down $8.49 (-16.92%!). The national base cash hog value was up 30 cents yesterday afternoon with a weighted average of $51.65. Thursday’s FI hog slaughter was estimated @ 476,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 1.873 million head. That was 25,000 fewer than a week prior and up 8,000 from the same week in 2017.

Cotton futures were mixed in overnight action and are trading 4 lower to 11 higher this morning. They ended Thursday with most contracts 7 to 14 points in the red. A 281 point bounce in the dollar was a negative influence, and the market is already nervous about slowing export sales. The Cotlook A index was down 50 points from the previous day at 85.55 cents/lb on Nov 14. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 68.48 cents/lb, down 138 points from the week prior. There were 8,102 bales in new stocks added to the Cert stocks level for delivery against Dec Futures, taking the total to 106,083 bales. First notice day for December cotton deliveries is November 26.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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